Fitch Beynəlxalq Reytinq Agentliyi ABB-nin reytinqlərinə yenidən baxaraq Bankın Uzunmüddətli emitentin defolt reytinqini BB səviyyəsində saxlayıb. ABB-nin Dayanıqlılıq reytinqi də bb səviyyəsində qiymətləndirilib. Reytinq proqnozu isə Pozitiv olaraq müəyyənləşib.  

Marja xəbər verir ki, bu, ABB-nin yaydığı məlumatda bildirilir.

Qeyd edilib ki, Fitch ekspertlərinin rəyinə görə Bankın kredit portfelinin genişlənməsi orta müddətdə müvafiq templə davam edəcək, aktivlərin keyfiyyəti isə davamlı şəkildə möhkəm qalacaq.

ABB-nin Uzunmüddətli emitentin defolt reytinqinin BB səviyyəsi Bankın güclü daxili bazar mövqeyini, dayanıqlı balans strukturunu, möhkəm maliyyə göstəricilərini əks etdirir.

Güclü balans strukturu Bankın aktivlərinin keyfiyyətinin davamlı şəkildə artmasına, yüksək gəlirliliyinə şərait yaradır, möhkəm kapital mövqeyini və likvidliyini təmin edir. Agentliyin proqnozlarına görə, Bankın əməliyyat gəlirliliyi ortamüddətli perspektivdə də güclü səviyyədə qalacaq.

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Fitch Affirms International Bank of Azerbaijan at 'BB'; Outlook Positive

Fitch Ratings has affirmed OJSC International Bank of Azerbaijan's (ABB) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (LT IDR) at 'BB'. The Outlook is Positive. Fitch has also affirmed the bank's Viability Rating (VR) at 'bb'. A full list of rating actions is below.

The Positive Outlook reflects Fitch's expectations that the expansion of the bank's loan portfolio will moderate over the medium term, while its asset quality should remain robust on a sustained basis.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

ABB's LT IDR of 'BB' is driven by the bank's standalone profile, as captured by its VR of 'bb'. The VR reflects a strong domestic franchise, solid balance-sheet structure and robust financial metrics. These are counterbalanced by the bank's exposure to the emerging and oil-dependent Azerbaijani economy.

Moderating Growth; Retail Lending Risks: Fitch projects that Azerbaijan's GDP growth will decelerate to 3.5% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, from 4.1% in 2024, reflecting a slowdown in the oil and gas sector amid lower global prices. The banking sector's average metrics have improved since 2017, with reduced loan dollarisation and legacy asset-quality risks. However, the rapid expansion of retail lending since 2021 could pose overheating risks, although the central bank takes proactive measures to mitigate credit risk in this subsector.

Leading Franchise; State Ownership: ABB is the largest bank in Azerbaijan, representing 25% of sector assets and 23% of sector loans at end-1H25. This results in the bank's strong domestic franchise and considerable pricing power. ABB is 92% state-owned.

Robust Asset Structure: ABB's loan book accounted for a moderate 43% of assets at end-1H25, with equal contributions from retail and corporate lending. The bank focuses on mortgages and unsecured cash loans for its retail lending, while the corporate portfolio comprises mostly exposures to the largest local enterprises. Non-loan assets (40%) were mostly liquid and of at least 'BBB-' credit quality. ABB's balance-sheet structure is a major rating strength, as it translates into resilient asset quality and profitability, plus solid capital and liquidity buffers.

Sound Loan Quality: ABB's impaired loans (Stage 3 loans under IFRS 9) rose mildly to 4.6% of gross loans at end-1H25 (end-2024: 3.5%), but these were almost fully covered by loan loss allowances. Stage 2 loans were limited (end-1H25: 1.3% of gross loans). Fitch believes the largest corporate exposures are adequately classified and provisioned for. We expect the impaired loans ratio to remain below 5% in 2H25-2026, supported by loan growth and write-offs.

Superior Profitability: The bank's annualised net interest income was stable at 6.1% of average earning assets (including cash and cash equivalents) in 1H25 (2024: 6%). This, coupled with good operating efficiency, led to a strong pre-impairment profit equal to 9.4% of average gross loans, while credit losses were limited. As a result, ABB's annualised operating profit/risk weighted assets (RWAs) ratio was a high 5.9% in 1H25 (2024: 6.1%). We expect the bank's operating profitability to moderate in 2H25-2026, but to remain strong.

Solid Capital Buffer: ABB's Fitch Core Capital (FCC) ratio decreased to 26% at end-1H25 (end-2024: 29%), owing to 18% RWA growth and dividend payments (56% of 2024 net income). We expect the FCC ratio to stay above 22% over the medium term, after large dividend payouts and on projected slower loan expansion to 15%-20% in 2025-2026 (2024: 26%).

Concentrated Funding, Ample Liquidity: The bank is mostly deposit-funded (end-1H25: 88% of liabilities). Single-name deposit concentration is high, with a large contribution from state-owned corporates (end-1H25: 50% of deposits), but we view these depositors as stable and core to the bank. ABB's liquidity buffer is substantial in both local and foreign currencies, as reflected by a gross loans/customer deposits ratio of 61% at end-1H25.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade

The Outlook on ABB's LT IDR could be changed to Stable, due to an erosion of capital and liquidity buffers, following rapid asset growth and large dividend payouts. The Outlook may also be revised to Stable on material loan-quality deterioration, stemming from aggressive loan growth, and a notable moderation in the bank's profitability, resulting from substantial loan impairment charges.

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade

An upgrade of ABB's VR and LT IDR would require sustained reasonable loan quality amid moderate loan growth and a stable domestic economic environment.

OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS

ABB's Government Support Rating (GSR) of 'no support' reflects that the support from the government of Azerbaijan cannot be relied on. This reflects the mixed and patchy record of state support provided to ABB.

OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES

An upgrade of the bank's GSR would be contingent on a positive change in Azerbaijan's propensity to support domestic systemically important banks, as manifested in a consistent record of state support.

VR ADJUSTMENTS

The earnings and profitability score of 'bb+' is below the 'bbb' category implied score because of the following adjustment reason: revenue diversification (negative).

The capitalisation and leverage score of 'bb+' is below the 'bbb' category implied score because of the following adjustment reason: risk profile and business model (negative).

The funding and liquidity score of 'bb+' is below the 'bbb' category implied score because of the following adjustment reason: historical and future metrics (negative). 

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.